What Would a NATO-Russia War Really Look Like? In reality, civilians would know in advance if a nuclear weapon would be potentially detonated, giving some enough time to seek shelter. (Homs Media Centre via AP). This can massively speed up commanders' decision-making and response times, allowing them to process information far more quickly. Concern that Russia might use nuclear weapons to restore its flagging fortunes in Ukraine seems to have declined since summer, as the war has settled into a destructive stalemate. The simulation assumes that Russia would target major US cities and there are no bomb threat warnings in those major cities. "We should be able to achieve our objectives and keep the Indo-Pacific, for example, free and open and prosperous into the future. How badly would Russia suffer? .css-v1xtj3{display:block;font-family:FreightSansW01,Helvetica,Arial,Sans-serif;font-weight:100;margin-bottom:0;margin-top:0;-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}@media (any-hover: hover){.css-v1xtj3:hover{color:link-hover;}}@media(max-width: 48rem){.css-v1xtj3{font-size:1.1387rem;line-height:1.2;margin-bottom:1rem;margin-top:0.625rem;}}@media(min-width: 40.625rem){.css-v1xtj3{line-height:1.2;}}@media(min-width: 48rem){.css-v1xtj3{font-size:1.18581rem;line-height:1.2;margin-bottom:0.5rem;margin-top:0rem;}}@media(min-width: 64rem){.css-v1xtj3{font-size:1.23488rem;line-height:1.2;margin-top:0.9375rem;}}6 Tips for Installing Your New In-Ground Pool, The Future of Mobile Military Power May Be Nuclear, We Built a Cool Mid-Century Influenced Desk, How Lasers Will Soon Power U.S. Military Bases, South Korea Is Building an American Arsenal Ship, Theres an Anti-Universe Going Backward in Time, Why France Is Still a Formidable Nuclear Power, 3 Simple Ways to Remove Wax From a Candle Jar, What We Know About the Navys New Seabed Spy Sub. Tactical nuclear forces are smaller warheads that are used on the battlefield. The core principle of NATO is its system of collective defence - this means if . "I would not want to speculate how long it would take for humanity to recover," Glaser said. Falling on May 9, it commemorates the Nazi surrender of World War II with a lavish spectacle meant to project might. But the gap has narrowed in recent years. Is climate change killing Australian wine? The result would be near-total devastation with global consequences. First off, "future warfare" is already here. ", FILE - This Thursday July 2, 2009 file photo, shows a new Russian nuclear submarine, Yuri Dolgoruky, near the Sevmash factory in the northern city of Arkhangelsk, Russia. "What the Russians are looking for is not to take on and compete on equal terms with us. Any fight between Turkey and Greece would immediately involve NATO, and would almost certainly result in some degree of opportunistic intervention by Russia. The Chechen soldiers are clear they're in Ukraine to make up for around two centuries of Russian oppression of their mountainous and frequently mutinous homeland from Joseph Stalin's population deportation in the . The six hypersonic weapons are not particularly accurate, but loaded with devastating two-megaton warheads (two million tons of TNT), so theres no need for pinpoint precision. Photo Credit: Vasily Maximov/AFP/Getty Images. Russia counterattacks with missiles launched from silos, submarines, and road-mobile vehicles. The United States launches a counterstrike, but it is seriously hobbled by a lack of forces, with most of the U.S. Strategic Commands Minuteman III ICBMs and B-2 and B-52 bombers destroyed in the first strike. Yet right now, on the cusp of 2022, the Russian forces massing on Ukraine's border, while certainly inclusive of offensive cyber and electronic warfare capabilities, are mainly composed of conventional hardware, such as tanks, armoured vehicles and troops - the same sort of hardware that would be deployed if Moscow decided to roll back into the Baltic states, for example. And those next five to 10 years could well see some of the most dangerous challenges to Western security. Russia on June 20 slammed the EU's extension of sanctions over its annexation of Crimea as "blackmail" and vowed it would not be pressured into returning the peninsula to Ukraine. Indeed, there were already reports of some in the run up to the warlike when hackers reportedly targeted. Kyles articles have appeared at The Daily Beast, U.S. Putins Russia, seeing Ukraine as alone and vulnerable, decided to attack. "We've got a ton of experience in low-intensity warfare, counterinsurgency warfare, whereas a bulk of the Ukraine experience is facing a 21st-century, near-peer adversary," said Army Lt. Col. Michael Kloepper, commander of the U.S. Army's 2nd Battalion, 503rd Infantry Regiment, 173rd Airborne Brigade, which recently began its third rotation into Ukraine to train that nation's military forces. What would war between Russia and NATO look like? On 16 November, Russia carried out a missile test in space, destroying one of its own satellites. U.S. Click the upvote icon at the top of the page to help raise this article through the indy100 rankings. Meaning what, in practice? Dmytro Smoliyenko / Ukrinform/Future Publishing via Getty Images, Kostas Pikoulas/Pacific Press/LightRocket via Getty Images, Metin Aktas/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images, NOW WATCH: The true cost of America's war machines. At the same time, these statements (and unwise stunts such as Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taipei) run the risk of triggering Chinese escalation. Before covering the military, he worked as a reporter for the Houston Chronicle in Texas, the Albany Times Union in New York and The Associated Press in Milwaukee. and Russian leaders understand that a full-scale nuclear war would be a civilization-ending event, Drozdenko explains. There are between 30,000 and 35,000 Russian-backed fighters in Eastern Ukraine, about 9,000 of whom are coming solely from the Russian front, Muzhenko estimates. Hitler and Stalin carved up Poland in 1939, and after the war the Soviet Union annexed most of the Polish territory it grabbed in 1939, with . Fortunately, there is good reason to believe that we will have some warning of war; as was the case along the Ukrainian border, Chinese preparation for conflict would be glaringly visible to everyone concerned. AFP PHOTO / VASILY MAXIMOV (Photo credit should read VASILY MAXIMOV/AFP/Getty Images). Analysts say Russia has a menu of options to attack at any moment it chooses, from shock-and-awe style air strikes to a ground invasion along a broad front. Over the weekend, Russian . The simulation begins in the context of a conventional conflictRussia fires a warning shot from a base near the city of Kaliningrad in an attempt to stop a U.S./NATO advance. MOSCOW -- We winced in our filthy trench as each rocket-propelled grenade whistled overhead and exploded behind us. Committee votes on major defense policy bill expected in May, Military families share workout with first lady Jill Biden, US conducts first evacuation of its citizens from Sudan war, Ukrainian drones strike Crimea oil depot, Russian official says, Army identifies 3 soldiers killed in Alaska helicopter crash, Understanding the role of artificial intelligence, Mark Kitz keynote speech at the C4ISRNET conference, The latest on software, data and artificial intelligence, Army grounds helicopter fleet for force-wide safety stand down. Were that to happen, Russia would have to expand the defensive force to 40,000-55,000 troops . However, the U.S. does not have the same security relationship with Ukraine as it does with NATO member nations and allies such as South Korea and Japan. Many of the aspects of a major conflict between the West and say, Russia or China, have already been developed, rehearsed and deployed. The scenario outlined above is an outlier, but one still within the realm of possibility. However, Barmin said, "it is doubtful that Russia has the capacity to emerge as a leading power in [the Middle East] in the near future because its presence in the region is limited if you compare it to that of the United States. AFP PHOTO / ANDREY KRONBERG (Photo credit should read ANDREY KRONBERG/AFP/Getty Images). A simulation shows how a nuclear war between Russia and NATO could potentially play out in a horrific scenario that would result in the deaths of millions of people around the world within hours. So is it all doom and gloom? These five simmering disputes pose the greatest risk of erupting into "World War III" in 2023. Instead of carriers designed for offensive power projection at sea, the Russians are investing in an expanding fleet of submarines that can supplement their nuclear force and, conventionally, threaten an enemy surface fleet in nearby waters such as the Black Sea, the Baltic Sea or the Mediterranean Sea. (Eric Lee/BLOOMBERG) Branko Marcetic is a staff . Kiev says it's desperate for more weaponry, but so far Washington has shown willingness to provide only nonlethal equipment. Did they Show more. There'd be attempts to "blind" the other by knocking out communications, including satellites, or even cutting the vital undersea cables that carry data. "We are really at a strategic inflection point where we - the US, the UK and our allies - are coming out of 20 years of focusing on counter terrorism and counter insurgency, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and lifting our gaze to realise we are now in a very serious great-power competition," she says. Vladimir Putin has reminded Europe since invading Ukraine that Russia is still a nuclear superpower. China today spends more on defense annually than Russia, but still imports platforms and advanced weaponry from Russia. NATO is struggling to figure out how to respond, with member nations holding differing perspectives on when Russian behavior crosses a red line. By early spring, the United States and its allies were pursuing policies that would result in the death of Russian soldiers, the destruction of Russian military equipment, and the long-term degradation of the Russian economy. For the small cadre of U.S. military professionals who've been working alongside Ukrainian government forces, the fight against Russian-backed rebels is a major change from their recent experience in Iraq and Afghanistan. as well as other partner offers and accept our. The Ukrainian military was on alert on its easter border with Russia on Thursday amid reports that separatist forces launched attacks on a border crossing near the village of Marinyvka. It really doesnt make much difference, because there would be hardly anyone left in the United States in a position to notice. "One of the ways to gain some quantitative mass back and to complicate adversaries' defence planning or attack planning is to pair human beings and machines," she says. She believes the solution is two things - close consultation and collaboration with allies and investment in the right places. A nuclear war is extremely unlikely. Russia claims to have some 750 tanks in its western military region, though its unclear how much of that equipment is legitimately combat-ready. Moments later, Russia launches its entire force of 304 land-based ICBMs carrying a total of approximately 1,183 thermonuclear warheads. "I think we're going to have a very dangerous period within the next five to 10 years when a lot of the downsizing is going to happen. The war has had a ripple effect on the world stage, dramatically increasing the stakes of disputes that have quietly smoldered for decades. That's reflected in the fact that Russia maintains a lone aircraft carrier while the U.S. Navy's 10-carrier fleet operates on a continuing global deployment cycle. Russia has deployed a number of Su-30 fighters to Syria, aircraft that are capable of striking ground targets as well as those in the air. With hundreds of new aircraft, tanks and missiles rolling off assembly lines and Russian jets buzzing European skies under NATOs wary eye, it doesnt look like Russias economic woes have had any impact on the Kremlins ambitious military modernization program. ", Sign up for our new free Indy100 weekly newsletter. Russia-Ukraine war - latest news updates; Pjotr Sauer. "Once the nuclear threshold is crossed, it may be very difficult to prevent escalation to an all-out nuclear war, i.e., escalating from single use, to a tactical nuclear war in Europe, to a counterforce attack, and ultimately to a countervalue attacktargeting cities and economic centers with the aim of inhibiting the other side's recovery," Glaser said. Those Russian troops routinely shell the border towns and make incursions into Ukraine to fight alongside the rebels in the contested areas. Such a scenario would result in the deaths of millions of people around the world within hours. U.S. officials and others cast doubt on that claim, saying the Russians appeared to be attacking opposition groups fighting Syrian government forces. AFP PHOTO/ ALEKSEY CHERNYSHEV (Photo credit should read ALEKSEY CHERNYSHEV/AFP/Getty Images). No matter what, it would be a nightmare for Europe's leaders. "That's the basis of the sanctions that the United States and our partners imposed on Russia. Recent tests of US systems, by contrast, have not gone well. Here, Russian forces would seek to reinforce the breakaway regions in the Donbas with . Could our phones suddenly stop working, petrol stations run dry and food distribution get thrown into chaos? In effect, the Russians could challenge the air superiority maintained even taken for granted by the U.S. over large swaths the Middle East for more than 20 years. First, a sustained war of conquest is unlikely. Having said that, accidents can happen and disagreements between two seemingly rational parties can and do quickly spiral out of control. While it is not clear if Russian President Vladimir Putin would ever go so far as to use nuclear weapons, the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine has led to a spike in discussions about the potential outbreak of nuclear war. In total, across Europe, Asia, and the US the simulation says a total of 90 million people would be killed within the first few hours of conflict and that number does not include deaths from nuclear fallout or other long-term effects. And the U.S. military maintains a broad technological edge and a vastly superior ability to project power around the world. taken extraordinary care with the risks of escalation, domestic vulnerability of the Erdogan regime, Waging War with Gold: National Security and the Finance Domain Across the Ages. The UK has taken the decision to cut its conventional forces in favour of investing in new technology. In 2022, the world came closer to Great Power War than at any point since the end of the Cold War. In sum, the Russian military is not the equal of the U.S. military. Farkas is stepping down from her post at the end of October, after five years at the Defense Department. About 100 yards across . April 24, 2023, 10:00 AM. 1st Class Jason Muzzy, an observer-controller from Company A, 1st Battalion, 161st Infantry Regiment, works with an Estonian soldier during a training exercise in Germany. What War With Russia Would Look Like https://ad.style/ Guest Post by Scott Ritter Wendy Sherman thinks her aim in talks with Russian officials starting Monday is to lecture them on the cost of hubris. In the current situation, lacking a direct U.S. and Russian confrontation, the likelihood of nuclear war is somewhere near zero. Smoke rises over Talbiseh, a city in western Syria's Homs province, on Sept. 30, marking Russian first airstrikes in the region. "I have not seen ISIL flying any airplanes that require SA-15s or SA-22s [Russian missiles]. The commander of U.S. Strategic Command, Admiral Charles Richard, testified to Congress in April 2021 that the United States might well face a two-front or even a three-front war if Russia were to . There will be no return to normalcy or status quo ante. Russian soldiers sit atop their tank during military exercises in the southern Russia's Volgograd region, on April 3, 2014. All of this at a time when Russian forces are massing on Ukraine's borders, Moscow has been demanding Nato withdraw from some of its member states, and China is making ever louder noises about retaking Taiwan - by force if necessary. Russia has the world's largest nuclear arsenal. Additionally, there are legally binding contracts between countries, including Russia, that prevent a nuclear war from occurring. For defensive purposes, Russian planners would have to recognize the risk of NATO coming to Kiev's assistance. Ukrainian servicemen patrol near the chemical plant in Avdeevka, a town just north of the city of Donetsk, on June 20. Experts inside Russia believe the incursion into Syria, along with Putin's aggressive speech at the United Nations on Sept. 28, signal his long-term interest in becoming a key player in the region. I asked Franz-Stefan Gady, a specialist on future warfare at the IISS, what this would mean for you and me, here on the ground. Russian has lined thousands of troops and large tank and artillery units along its Ukrainian border. If it happens, a Russian invasion of Ukraine would almost certainly be a bloody affair with many casualties and widespread destruction, experts say. The consequences of a nuclear war for life on Earth would be "unimaginable", Glaser said. Before we begin, we should note that neither of the scenarios are likely to occur in our lifetimes. In the four-minute-long video, scientists play out a scenario where Russia is attempting to fight off members of NATO. Their targets are tanks,. We can hope that the leaders of the world's great powers will take care over the coming year with the vast stockpiles of weapons that they control. Saturday 29 April 2023 01:15, UK. It's not a desire to return to the Cold War.". Small, regional conflicts still erupt around the globe. Wed 26 Apr 2023 09.14 EDT Last modified on Wed 26 Apr 2023 16.13 EDT. Washington has placed economic sanctions on Russia, sent U.S. troops to help train Ukrainian forces and has ramped up military exercises across Eastern Europe. These tensions aren't new, but historically they have been constrained by the Cold War and by the post-Cold War liberal international order. It's logistically complex. It is important for cooler heads to prevail and to provide diplomatic off-ramps for this conflict.. According to Glaser, a global thermonuclear war on this scale could certainly be considered a "worst-case scenario", although the title of the video hints at the fact that the sequence of events shown is simply part of the standard playbook. Dr. Farley is also a founder and senior editor of Lawyers, Guns and Money. In the final stage of the conflict, both Russia and NATO target the 30 most populated cities and economic centers of the other sideusing 5-10 nuclear warheads on each depending on population sizein an attempt to inhibit the potential for recovery. In our scenario, the President of the United States has ordered the U.S. military to intervene on Ukraines behalf, destroying Russian Ground Forces units in the field and downing Russian fighter jets. And Russian officials have voiced support for Russian-speaking minorities, raising the specter of future agitation. Russian President Vladimir Putin has indicated that he understands the peril of nuclear weapons. We may earn commission from links on this page, but we only recommend products we back. The second, more devastating countervalue scenario involves an all-out use of nukes to destroy the United States ability to wage war, with the side effect of reducing American society to a pre-industrial level of development. Russias leadership would then warn that any attempt to retaliate would unleash the rest of the countrys nuclear weapons, killing millions more and destroying the U.S. as a military, political, and economic entity. For now, Obama shows no signs of conceding to Russian control the regions Ukraine has controlled for decades. The first is gone and the second is fraying, to the extent that Pyongyang may feel like it has a moment and Seoul may struggle to find the patience to tolerate the antics of its neighbor. Avangard hypersonic glide vehicles rain down on early warning radar bases across North America, destroying the sensors needed to detect the main surprise attack. For months, there has been . The argument goes that Putin would employ a type of hybrid warfare perfected in Ukraine to rally ethnic Russian populations in the Baltic states to rise up in support with special operations forces the so-called "little green men.". Russia has a very diverse atomic arsenal, which allows it to launch attacks using land, sea and air delivery platforms: this is the so-called. An expansion of the war to NATO remains unlikely but possible; the Russian use of nuclear weapons remains unthinkable but not at all impossible. "The embarrassment is just going to keep growing over this," Laura Harth, the campaign director at Safeguard Defenders, told Newsweek. But there's one area where the West is falling dangerously behind Russia and China. The XII International Aviation and Space Show in Zhukovsky opened Tuesday for specialists and press, with members of the public invited to visit it from Friday, Aug. 28. Both countries also subscribe to a policy of assured destruction, meaning any attack on either nation would result in the attackers destruction. There's nothing ordinary about Cold Response 2020. Putin and his military have menaced the Baltic countries, who are among the newest and weakest NATO partners. It remains unlikely that any of these disputes will develop into a global conflict, although the Ukraine War already has some aspects of great power war. China's Dong Feng 17, first revealed in 2019, carries a hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) that can manoeuvre through the atmosphere with an almost unpredictable trajectory, making it hard to intercept. Early on the morning of Sept. 30, a Russian three-star general approached the American embassy in Baghdad, walked past a wall of well-armed Marines, to deliver face-to-face a diplomatic demarche to the United States.
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