McNulty, S., S. Weiner, J. Moore Myers, H. Farahani, L. Fouladbash, D. Marshall, and R. F. Steele, 2015: Southeast regional climate hub assessment of climate change vulnerability and adaptation and mitigation strategies. Stewart (eds.)]. Observed warming since the mid-20th century has been uneven in the Southeast region, with average daily minimum temperatures increasing three times faster than average daily maximum temperatures. ), The Cherokee have been harvesting ramps, a wild onion (Allium tricoccum), in the southern Appalachians, their ancestral homelands, for thousands of years.264,265 Collecting ramps for food sustenance is only one aspect of this cultural tradition. Although rural areas have some distinct economic attributes, they also increasingly mirror development patterns in more populated locals. | Many transportation and storm water systems have not been designed to withstand these events. For example, in Norfolk, Virginia, local relative sea level rise has led to a fourfold increase in the probability of exceeding NWS thresholds compared to the 1960s (Figure 19.8). Further refinement of these focal areas occurred in conjunction with the public Regional Engagement Workshop, held on the campus of North Carolina State University in March 2017 and in six satellite locations across the Southeast region. The island has lost 98% of its landmass since 1955 and has only approximately 320 acres (approximately 1/2 square mile) remaining. Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority of Louisiana, Baton Rouge, LA, 171 pp. B. Claydon, T. L. Metz, A. L. Gordon, A. M. Landry, D. J. Shaver, J. Blumenthal, L. Collyer, B. J. Godley, A. McGowan, M. J. Witt, C. L. Campbell, C. J. Lagueux, T. L. Bethel, and L. Kenyon, 2017: Ecological regime shift drives declining growth rates of sea turtles throughout the West Atlantic. USGS Professional Paper 1828. NOAA National Weather Service (NWS), Tallahassee, FL. Extreme rainfall events have increased in frequency and intensity in the Southeast, and there is high confidence they will continue to increase in the future (Figure 19.3).19 The region, as a whole, has experienced increases in the number of days with more than 3 inches of precipitation (Figure 19.3) and a 16% increase in observed 5-year maximum daily precipitation (the amount falling in an event expected to occur only once every 5 years).19 Both the frequency and severity of extreme precipitation events are projected to continue increasing in the region under both lower and higher scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). For example, citrus species are sensitive to freezing and chilling temperatures.148 However, in the future, climate change is expected to enable the survival of citrus in areas that are north of the current tolerance zone.142, The effects of changing winters reach far beyond just agricultural and garden plants. These beaches and bayous, fields and forests, and cities and small towns are all at risk from a changing climate. A. Martinich, K. C. Shouse, and C. W. Wobus, 2013: Quantifying and valuing potential climate change impacts on coral reefs in the United States: Comparison of two scenarios. Throughout the southeastern United States, the impacts of sea level rise, increasing temperatures, extreme heat events, heavy precipitation, and decreased water availability continue to have numerous consequences for human health, the built environment, and the natural world. Anthony, K. R. N., J. In particular, coastal cities in the Southeast face multiple climate risks, and many planning efforts are underway in these cities. Amekudzi, A., M. Crane, D. Springstead, D. Rose, and T. Batac, 2013: Transit climate change adaptation assessment for the Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority. The annual mean projected losses are roughly halved (0.28 billion labor hours) and with a model range from 0.19 to 0.43 billion labor hours lost under RCP4.5 by 2090.35. McEwan, R. W., J. M. Dyer, and N. Pederson, 2011: Multiple interacting ecosystem drivers: Toward an encompassing hypothesis of oak forest dynamics across eastern North America. Discover these cost-effective liquid colorants that are consistent with all common resin types. Natural systems in the region will have to become resistant and resilient to both too little water and too much water. The combined impacts of sea level rise and storm surge in the Southeast have the potential to cost up to $60 billion each year in 2050 and up to $99 billion in 2090 under a higher scenario (RCP8.5).35 Even under a lower scenario (RCP4.5), projected damages are $56 and $79 billion in 2050 and 2090, respectively (in 2015 dollars, undiscounted).35 Florida alone is estimated to have a 1-in-20 chance of having more than $346 billion (in 2011 dollars) in property value (8.7%) below average sea level by 2100 under a higher scenario (RCP8.5).64 An assessment by the Florida Department of Health determined that 590,000 people in South Florida face extreme or high risk from sea level rise, with 125,000 people living in these areas identified as socially vulnerable and 55,000 classified as medically vulnerable.65 In addition to causing direct injury, storm surge and related flooding can impact transportation infrastructure by blocking or flooding roads and affecting access to healthcare facilities (Ch. Kovach, M. M., C. E. Konrad, and C. M. Fuhrmann, 2015: Area-level risk factors for heat-related illness in rural and urban locations across North Carolina, USA. Recent social science studies have indicated that people may migrate from many coastal communities that are vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise, high tide flooding, saltwater intrusion, and storm surge.71 Even though many communities are starting to develop adaptation strategies to address current flooding issues, many adaptation strategies are not being designed for longer time horizons and more extreme worst-case climate scenarios.1,67, For the United States, 2017 was a historic year for weather and climate disasters, with widespread impacts and lingering costs. High temperatures, increases in accumulated plant material on the forest floor, and a four-month seasonal drought in the fall of 2016 collectively produced the worst wildfires the region has seen in a century. They are found in the different sub-regions called: Post Oak-Belt, Piney Woods, and the Blackland Prairies. industries and county or municipal well fields look for these higher yielding bedrock wells. WebThe Atlantic Plain is one of eight distinct physiographic regions of the United States. 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Tallahassee, FL, 113 pp. Field, D. W., A. J. Reyer, P. V. Genovese, and B. D. Shearer, 1991: Coastal wetlands of the United States: An accounting of a valuable national resource. Cartwright, J. M., and W. J. Wolfe, 2016: Insular ecosystems of the southeastern United States: A regional synthesis to support biodiversity conservation in a changing climate. 100 Resilient Cities, 150 pp. Clark, P. U., A. S. Dyke, J. D. Shakun, A. E. Carlson, J. Clark, B. Wohlfarth, J. X. Mitrovica, S. W. Hostetler, and A. M. McCabe, 2009: The last glacial maximum. C3P, 2017: Carolinas Precipitation Patterns & Probabilities (C3P): An Atlas of Hydroclimate Extremes [web page]. Already, in response to climate change, plant hardiness zones in certain areas are moving northward and are expected to continue their northward and upslope progression.139,142,146,147 Continued reductions in the frequency and intensity of winter air temperature extremes are expected to change which species are able to survive and thrive in a given location (Figure 19.15). Although the agricultural output has been on the Rep. WO-91. Credits These perigean tides, also known as king tides, occur twice a year and in many cities are causing what has been called nuisance or recurrent flooding (referred to herein as high tide flooding). Means, J. Costanza, and R. K. Peet, 2015: How global biodiversity hotspots may go unrecognized: Lessons from the North American Coastal Plain. Ungerer, M. J., M. P. Ayres, and M. J. Lombardero, 1999: Climate and the northern distribution limits of Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann (Coleoptera: Scolytidae). (See the dark brown counties in Figure 1.). Island Press, Washington, DC. Grace, C. L. Stagg, R. H. Day, S. B. Hartley, N. M. Enwright, A. S. From, M. L. McCoy, and J. L. McLeod, 2017: Macroclimatic change expected to transform coastal wetland ecosystems this century. Clustered development the close proximity of multiple businesses facilitate economies of scale, as well as spillovers in knowledge that result in innovation. Others are tourism & recreation, shipping, papermaking, commercial fishing and forestry. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Office of Atmospheric Programs, Washington, DC, 93 pp. 10: Ag & Rural, KM 1).7 In particular, precipitation trends for the Southeast region show an inclination towards slightly drier summers, which could reduce productivity, and wetter fall seasons, which can make it difficult to harvest the full crop. Global sea level is very likely to rise by 0.30.6 feet by 2030, 0.51.2 feet by 2050, and 1.04.3 feet by 2100 under a range of scenarios from very low (RCP2.6) to high (RCP8.5),51,52,62 which would result in increases in both the depth and frequency of coastal flooding (Figure 19.7).51 Under higher emissions scenarios (RCP8.5), global sea level rise exceeding 8 feet (and even higher in the Southeast) by 2100 cannot be ruled out.51 By 2050, many Southeast cities are projected to experience more than 30 days of high tide flooding regardless of scenario.63 In addition, more extreme coastal flood events are also projected to increase in frequency and duration.60 For example, water levels that currently have a 1% chance of occurring each year (known as a 100-year event) will be more frequent with sea level rise. WebCoastal Plains Trucking provides safe, superior logistics services to consistently deliver value to our customers. The rainfall sparked inland flooding that led to three dam breaches and the destruction of countless roads and homes (see Figure 19.13 showing flash flooding impacts to inland roads). Carolinas Integrated Sciences & Assessments (CISA), Columbia, SC, 4 pp. NOAA RCC, 2017: xmACIS2 [Applied Climate Information System online tool]. Remote rural communities in the coastal area face fewer employment opportunities and longer distances to urban areas. Hughes, T. P., A. H. Baird, D. R. Bellwood, M. Card, S. R. Connolly, C. Folke, R. Grosberg, O. Hoegh-Guldberg, J. If he adds one additional crew member, he wont increase his landings. 13: Air Quality, KM 3). NC Rural Health Research Program, 2017: Rural Hospital Closures: January 2010Present. WebThe Coastal Plain province comprises the southern and eastern thirds of the state, and its elevation varies from sea level to about 300 feet (90 metres). Analysis of the sensitivity of some manufacturing sectors to climate changes anticipates secondary risks associated with crop and livestock productivity.64,255, Multiple analyses anticipate that energy- or water-intensive industries could face water stress and increased energy costs.8,64,255,256, A large body of evidence addresses the sensitivity of many crops grown in the Southeast to changing climate conditions including increased temperatures, decreased summer rainfall, drought, and change in the timing and duration of chill periods.7,35 Extensive research documents livestock sensitivity to heat stress.7, Multiple lines of evidence indicate that forests are likely to be impacted by changing climate, particularly moisture regimes and potential changes in wildfire activity.191,195,272,274 There is extensive research on heat-related illness and mortality among those living and working in the Southeast. Biloxi Mississippi Code of Ordinances, 2017: Binita, K.-C., J. M. Shepherd, and C. J. Gaither, 2015: Climate change vulnerability assessment in Georgia. EPA, 2015: Climate Change in the United States: Benefits of Global Action. Warming ocean temperatures due to climate change are expected to have a large effect on marine and coastal ecosystems (Ch. Florida Climate Institute, Gainesville, FL, 20 pp. Case Study: Charleston, South Carolina, Begins Planning and Reinvesting for Sea Level Rise, Case Study: A Lesson Learned for Community Resettlement: Isle de Jean Charles Band of Biloxi-Chitimacha-Choctaw Tribe, Case Study: Coastal and Inland Impacts of Extreme Rainfall. 9: Oceans, KM 3).234,235,236 Many species are sensitive to small changes in ocean temperature; hence, the distribution and abundance of marine organisms are expected to be greatly altered by increasing ocean temperatures. In Central and South Florida, such things would include the closing of schools, colleges, and universities; the closing of tourist attractions and the cancellation of thousands of flights into and out of region; and the closing or restricting of the use of seaports including Canaveral, Key West, Miami, and Jacksonville, among others.109,112 The Select Committee on Hurricane Response and Preparedness: Final Report109 estimates that there were 84 U.S. deaths attributable to Hurricane Irma and other untold damage and human suffering. U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA, 162 pp. Under the higher scenario, nighttime minimum temperatures above 75F and daytime maximum temperatures above 95F become the summer norm and nights above 80F and days above 100F, now relatively rare occurrences, become commonplace. Easterling, K.E. By the late 21st century under the higher scenario (RCP8.5), the freeze-free season is expected to lengthen by more than a month. Kennedy, J. P., M. W. Pil, C. E. Proffitt, W. A. Boeger, A. M. Stanford, and D. J. Devlin, 2016: Postglacial expansion pathways of red mangrove, Rhizophora mangle, in the Caribbean Basin and Florida. By the end of the century under a higher scenario (RCP8.5), projections indicate approximately double the number of heavy rainfall events (2-day precipitation events with a 5-year return period) and a 21% increase in the amount of rain falling on the heaviest precipitation days (days with a 20-year return period).19,81 These projected increases would directly affect the vulnerability of the Southeasts coastal and low-lying areas. Florida House of Representatives, 2018: Select Committee on Hurricane Response and Preparedness Final Report. - Industries: Federal and state government, farming, horse industry. WebThe Southeasts coastal plain and inland low-lying regions support a rapidly growing population, a tourism economy, critical industries, and important cultural resources that are highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. Flooding events are highly variable in both space and time. Sustain Louisville, 2017: 2016 progress report. Terando, A. J., B. Reich, K. Pacifici, J. Costanza, A. McKerrow, and Jaime A. Collazo, 2016: Uncertainty quantification and propagation for projections of extremes in monthly area burned under climate change: A case study in the coastal plain of Georgia, USA. The resettlement plan is expected to be implemented by 2022 with the inclusion of many facilities in the new location to revitalize the tribal community, including a tribal center and a healthcare facility. EPA 800-Q-15-004. The city has responded by making physical modifications, developing a more robust disaster response plan, and improving planning and monitoring prior to flood events. Understanding why businesses locate where they do helps to explain why some rural regions prosper while others languish. 6: Forests, KM 1).217,218,219,220,221,222,223 Drought can also affect aquatic and wetland ecosystems,224 for example by contributing to mortality and ecological transformations in salt marshes,225,226 mangrove forests,227,228,229,230,231 and tidal freshwater forests.232 In addition to drought, extreme rainfall events are also expected to become more frequent and severe in the future. Many of these urban areas are rapidly growing and offer opportunities to adopt effective adaptation efforts to prevent future negative impacts of climate change. Copyright & Legal Disclaimer 1 U.S. Census Bureau. Without significant adaptation measures, these regions are projected to experience daily high tide flooding by the end of the century (likely, high confidence). Williams, J. W., and S. T. Jackson, 2007: Novel climates, no-analog communities, and ecological surprises. Generally, more remote places have the lowest median household incomes. Horney, J., M. Nguyen, D. Salvesen, C. Dwyer, J. Cooper, and P. Berke, 2017: Assessing the quality of rural hazard mitigation plans in the southeastern United States. Carter, L. M., J. W. Jones, L. Berry, V. Burkett, J. F. Murley, J. Obeysekera, P. J. Schramm, and D. Wear, 2014: Ch. Net Accessories (4) While the hurricane directly damaged portions of the Southeast, the impacts could be felt around the country in the form of business interruptions (such as tourism), transportation and infrastructure damages (such as ports, roadways, and airports), increases in fuel costs, and $2.5 billion (in 2018 dollars) in total estimated crop losses,109 which had the potential to impact the cost of food and other products for all Americans. Nowacki, G. J., and M. D. Abrams, 2008: The demise of fire and mesophication of forests in the eastern United States. American Fact Finder. Isle de Jean Charles Tribe, 2017: Bienvenue, Aiokpanchi, Welcome to Isle de Jean Charles [web site]. Vergs, A., P. D. Steinberg, M. E. Hay, A. G. B. Poore, A. H. Campbell, E. Ballesteros, K. L. Heck, D. J. Booth, M. A. Coleman, D. A. Feary, W. Figueira, T. Langlois, E. M. Marzinelli, T. Mizerek, P. J. Mumby, Y. Nakamura, M. Roughan, E. van Sebille, A. S. Gupta, D. A. Smale, F. Tomas, T. Wernberg, and S. K. Wilson, 2014: The tropicalization of temperate marine ecosystems: Climate-mediated changes in herbivory and community phase shifts. Without significant adaptation measures, these regions are projected to experience daily high tide flooding by the end of the century. Changing winter temperature extremes, wildfire patterns, sea levels, hurricanes, floods, droughts, and warming ocean temperatures are expected to redistribute species and greatly modify ecosystems (very likely, high confidence). Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, pp. Howard, R. J., R. H. Day, K. W. Krauss, A. S. From, L. Allain, and N. Cormier, 2017: Hydrologic restoration in a dynamic subtropical mangrove-to-marsh ecotone. Volume 9 Version 2.0: Southeastern States (Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi) . NOAA Technical Report NOS CO-OPS 073. Over the past 50 years, the resultant gross damage and lost wages have totaled more than $1.53 billion (dollar year not specified). In coming years, high-amenity and urban-adjacent rural areas that comprise North Carolinas coastal region are likely to continue to be competitive in a global economy, while more remote rural places may require additional investment to thrive. Rapid population growth with associated urbanization and suburbanization over the last several decades has resulted in a more fine-grained forest landscape with smaller and more numerous forest patches.254 Agriculture, manufacturing, tourism, and other major economic sectors are spread across the Southeast region. Holding, C. V. Kappel, M. I. O'Connor, J. M. Pandolfi, C. Parmesan, F. Schwing, S. A. Thompson, and A. J. Richardson, 2013: Global imprint of climate change on marine life. U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Ocean Service, Silver Spring, MD, 58 pp. Changes in winter air temperature patterns are one aspect of climate change that will play an especially important role in the Southeast. Scientific Investigations Map 3381. U.S. The number of extreme rainfall events is increasing. North Carolina regions by county. The Mesa brand of liquid and solid colorants has a legacy of quality and reliability. Natural amenities, like attractive scenery and recreational opportunities, draw people to rural areas and have boosted the wealth of many waterfront communities. A. Collazo, R. Wershoven, V. Guzmn Hernndez, T. B. Stringell, A. Sanghera, P. B. Richardson, A. C. Broderick, Q. Phillips, M. Calosso, J. What is the industries of the coastal plains? The Miami area nearly matched the 2015 record of 18 days.61 This increase in high tide flooding frequency is directly tied to sea level rise. Drought has been a recurrent issue in the Southeast affecting agriculture, forestry, and water resources.253 With rapid growth in population and overall demand, drought is increasingly a concern for water resource management sectors such as cities, ecosystems, and energy production.
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